Unmodeled: Welcome/Manifesto
Business Analytics without the bias
Why this. Why now.
I’ve been in marketing for 25 years.
I’ve built 3 SaaS companies. Had over 2,000 conversations with CMOs, VPs of marketing, and agency owners across Europe and the US. Spent a full decade building and selling attribution tools internationally.
And somewhere around year 8 of that decade, I started having a conversation with myself that I wasn’t having with my clients:
What if the data we’re all basing decisions on is fundamentally incomplete?
Not a little off. Not “needs calibration.” Fundamentally broken.
In Europe, 45% of your website traffic rejects cookies. They don’t exist in your analytics. Of the 55% who accept, roughly half don’t complete consent on the landing page. Your attribution model — the one you’re paying thousands of euros a year for — runs on 27.5% of your actual traffic.
I know this because I was the one selling you those models.
That realization changed the trajectory of my career. I stopped selling attribution into European markets and built Sealmetrics — a consentless analytics tool that measures 100% of traffic, legally, without cookies, without consent banners, without the data gaps.
But this newsletter isn’t about Sealmetrics. It’s about something bigger.
It’s about the 72.5% that nobody in the analytics industry wants to talk about honestly. The dark funnel. The invisible signals. The podcast listener who Googles you three weeks later. The AI chatbot recommending your competitor. The campaign that “doesn’t convert” but drives a third of your page views.
The unmodeled part.
I’m launching Unmodeled because I’m tired of watching smart marketers make bad decisions based on data that’s lying to them — and an industry that profits from keeping it that way.
What kind of space this will be
Unmodeled is not another marketing newsletter that curates links and tells you what you already know in a friendlier font.
This is a space for marketers, founders, and agency leaders who suspect their data isn’t telling the whole story — and want someone to confirm that suspicion with numbers, not opinions.
Here’s what Unmodeled will be:
Honest. I’ve been the vendor. I know the playbook. I know why attribution companies push annual contracts. I know why consultants build “proprietary models” on Google Analytics data. I’ll tell you what’s real and what’s theater.
Technical, but readable. I won’t dumb it down, but I won’t hide behind jargon either. If a concept needs explaining, I’ll explain it with real examples from real businesses.
Opinionated. I have 25 years of opinions backed by data. Some of them will be uncomfortable. That’s the point. The analytics space is drowning in corporate fluff and diplomatic non-answers. Unmodeled will not be that.
A conversation, not a broadcast. Reply to any issue. I read every response. Some of the best newsletter issues will come from questions you ask me. This is your space too.
If that sounds like your kind of thing:
What to expect — specifically
I respect your inbox. So here’s the deal:
One email. Every Sunday. 08:08 AM Barcelona time.
That’s it. No daily drip. No “5-part sequence.” One issue a week, timed so it’s sitting in your inbox before you start thinking about the week ahead.
Each issue covers what a Founder or CMO actually needs to know — but nobody is explaining without an agenda:
Data — what your analytics are really telling you, and what they’re hiding. The 72.5% problem. The bias in your attribution. The metrics that look healthy but are lying.
Marketing — what’s actually working in acquisition, retention, and brand. Not theory. What I’m doing, what I’m seeing in outbound, what’s converting and what’s burning money.
Sales — how I sell a SaaS in Europe, what objections I hear every week, what closes deals and what kills them. The real pipeline, not the CRM fantasy.
Privacy — GDPR, AEPD 2024, consent banners, server-side tracking myths, and what compliance actually means for your measurement stack. This one matters more than most founders realize.
AI — how artificial intelligence is reshaping analytics, attribution, and the competitive landscape. What it means for your traffic, your data, and your business model.
Every issue comes from experience. Not from a research tab I opened 20 minutes before writing. I’ve been doing this for 25 years. I’ve made the mistakes. I’ve seen what works at scale and what collapses under pressure.
No fluff. No smoke. No recycled takes.
Here’s what I will never send you:
Sponsored content or paid placements
Affiliate links disguised as recommendations
Vague advice that could apply to any business
The same thing you already read on LinkedIn last Tuesday
Who this is for (and who it’s not for)
Unmodeled is for you if:
You’re a CMO or VP of Marketing making budget allocation decisions and you’ve started to wonder if your attribution data is actually reliable.
You run an agency and you’re reporting channel performance to clients using tools that only see a fraction of the traffic.
You’re a SaaS founder scaling in Europe and you’ve realized that GDPR didn’t just change compliance — it broke the entire measurement stack.
You’re a data-driven marketer who wants to understand what “consentless analytics” actually means, technically and legally, without the sales pitch.
Unmodeled is probably not for you if:
You’re happy with your GA4 setup and don’t want anyone questioning it. That’s fine — but this newsletter will question it. Frequently.
One more thing
I could have launched this newsletter years ago. I had the knowledge. I had the data. But I was still on the other side — selling the very tools I now know are incomplete.
Starting Unmodeled is, in some ways, a public reckoning with that. I benefited from the status quo. Now I want to dismantle the parts of it that don’t serve you.
Every issue will be grounded in real experience, real data, and real businesses. Not because that’s a content strategy. Because after 25 years, I don’t know how to do it any other way.
First issue drops this Sunday at 08:08 AM.
If you want in:
Welcome to Unmodeled. Let’s see the full picture.
— Rafa